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Update on A (H1N1) Influenza (Swine Influenza) - May 6, 2009

Paul Auerbach, M.D.
According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), as of May 6 at 11 AM, there are 642 confirmed cases across 41 states in the U.S., with 2 deaths, both in Texas. Here's the breakdown:

U.S. Laboratory-Confirmed Human Cases of A (H1N1) Influenza Infection

Alabama 4
Arizona 48
California 67
Colorado 17
Connecticut 4
Delaware 33
Florida 5
Georgia 3
Hawaii 3
Idaho 1
Illinois 122
Indiana 15
Iowa 1
Kansas 2
Kentucky 2
Louisiana 7
Maine 1
Maryland 4
Massachusetts 45
Michigan 8
Minnesota 1
Missouri 2
Nebraska 4
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 2
New Jersey 7
New Mexico 3
New York 97
North Carolina 7
Ohio 5
Oklahoma 1
Oregon 15
Pennsylvania 1
Rhode Island 2
South Carolina 16
Tennessee 2
Texas 61 cases; 2 deaths
Utah 1
Virginia 3
Washington 9
Wisconsin 6
TOTAL (41) 642 cases; 2 deaths

Twenty-two countries have officially reported a total of 1516 cases.

Where is this worldwide flu outbreak headed? It's difficult to say precisely at this point, but the hope is that it is already receding in Mexico, and will soon begin to recede in other geographic locations. By the numbers, however, it is still on the rise in a number of places. While some experts believe that we may quickly have answers to local estimates of expansion versus recession, it is more likely that this will play out over the course of weeks or months. The good news is that better diagnostic testing has already lowered the confirmed death rate in Mexico.

A significant issue would be development of resistant (to oseltamivir or zanamivir) strains of influenza, attributed to overuse of these drugs to treat mild cases. Anxiety is still running fairly high, based upon reports of the number of visits to emergency departments by concerned individuals, many of whom report no symptoms, but just want to be reassured.

The CDC has revised its guidance about school closure. It now recommends that students with flu symptoms remain out of school for at least 7 days, but that the schools remain open.

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